Pac 12 predictions: Week 5

There are fewer matchups to analyze in the fifth week, with Washington upsetting Stanford on Thursday night, and USC and Utah having a bye. I finished with 3 of 5 conference game predictions correct in week 4.  And by whiffing on South Carolina as my upset pick,  I settled at .500 when the weekend was done.

After 4 weeks of football, Oregon State is now the biggest surprise in conference. The Beavers have only played two games in 2012, but walked away with an upset in each.  They are underdogs again this week, with Vegas odds makers requesting a third bite before stripping the label of pretender.

Arizona State (3-1) vs Cal (1-3)
The Bears are still looking for their first victory over an FBS opponent, yet they enter as only 1-point underdogs against the Sun Devils. An explanation can be found by tracing history, specifically Sparky on the road. Arizona State is 3-10 in its last 13 road games, which includes the team’s only loss at Missouri this year.
All-Time Series: Cal leads 17-14
Line: ASU -1
Prediction: Cal 34, Arizona State 27

UCLA (3-1) vs Colorado (1-3)
Last week I said the Buffs were staring at their last shot at victory, and I’m standing by it. Colorado may have proved me partially wrong by winning at Washington State, but still has an opportunity to make with right in the long run. UCLA lives by the rush, but Colorado is 114th in the nation defending the pass. Expect more Brett Hundley and less Jonathan Franklin in this one.
All-Time Series: UCLA leads 5-2
Line: UCLA -20
Prediction: UCLA 40, Colorado 13

No. 18 Oregon State (2-0) vs Arizona (3-1)
Arizona was one of the few victories for Oregon State last year, and it is the one that would inevitably send Mike Stoops packing. The Wildcats immediately fired their coach after losing to the Beavers, opting for change going forward. Despite a good start in 2012, I’m going to say little has changed under Rich Rodriguez, and pick Oregon State to repeat again.
All-Time Series: Arizona leads 21-13-1
Line: Arizona -3
Prediction: Oregon State 28, Arizona 23

No. 2 Oregon (4-0) vs Washington State (2-2)
No commentary needed for this section
All-Time Series: Oregon leads 44-33-6
Line: Oregon -30
Prediction: Oregon 56, WSU 13

Bye: USC, Utah

Upset Alert

No. 12 Texas (3-0) vs Oklahoma State (2-1)
The Longhorns have won 6 consecutive games in Stillwater, but has lost the last two of this series. The Cowboys lead the nation in total offense, including an FBS high 62.3 points per game. The Achilles heel for Oklahoma State has been turnovers, committing four in its only loss this season. If it can minimize errors it may lull Texas into a game of keep-up, where the odds will favor the home team on most days. This wouldn’t be much of an upset based on Vegas odds, but could cause quite a shake up in the rankings on Sunday.
All-Time Series: Texas leads 22-4
Line: Texas -2.5
Prediction: Oklahoma State 47, Texas 20

Last Week

Pac 12: 3-2
Upset: 0-1
Total: 3-3

~ by Anthony on September 28, 2012.

One Response to “Pac 12 predictions: Week 5”

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