Preview: Stanford at No. 9 USC

What is the reward for upsetting 8th ranked Oregon in a wild west shootout?  If you’re Stanford, it’s drawing BCS No. 9 USC the following week.  The Cardinal will attempt to record consecutive victories over top-ten opponents in a span of just fourteen days.

For the Trojans, it’s a much needed homecoming, after spending the majority of the season clawing out victories in enemy confines.  Unlike their opponent, USC doesn’t enter this game riding the emotions of a tremendous victory.  They enter with personnel questions, after staving off another upset bid in the Arizona desert.

STANFORD CARDINAL (6-3, 5-2 Pac 10)
Last week: Defeated No. 8 Oregon 51-42

Now in his third year coaching the Cardinal, Jim Harbaugh has taken the program from conference doormats to legitimate title contenders.  Stanford sits just one game behind conference leaders Arizona and Oregon in the standings.  They extended a helpful hand to USC a week ago, giving the Ducks their first loss in conference to keep the Trojans in the hunt, but will offer no friendship on Saturday to a rivaled opponent blocking the path.

The Cardinal will enter the Coliseum with the nation’s 14th ranked offense (443 ypg).  It is powered by Toby Gerhart, the Pac 10 rushing leader, and second most productive ground gainer in the country.  Gerhart is a workhorse back that will wear down a defensive line as the game goes on.  Here in the eleventh week, he’s already toted the rock 233 times for 1,217 yards and 16 touchdowns (2nd in the nation).

The rushing attack is complimented by quarterback Andrew Luck and the passing game.  Luck’s 11/3 touchdown to interceptions ratio makes him the ninth most efficient passer in the country, best in the Pac 10.  And though he isn’t viewed or credited for his mobility, Luck also averages 5.2 yards per carry.

Defensively, the Cardinal is ranked 82nd in the country, and have been miserable against the pass, allowing opponents 253 yards per outing through the air.  The bulk of their problem may stem from the lack of a pass rush, recording just 17 sacks as a team to date.  In comparison, The Trojans have sacked opposing quarterbacks 32 times, with Everson Griffen having 9 on his own.

USC TROJANS (6-2, 4-2 Pac 10)
Last week: Defeated Arizona State 14-9

Southern California has been sputtering, statistically fading in both offensive and defensive categories.  An offense that was once ranked in the top-20 is now 40th, coming off their lowest output last weekend where they managed just 7 points against the Sun Devils.  A defense once ranked among the top-5 has fallen to No. 38.  But this may not be a call for alarm, as much as it’s a call for return.

When injuries began to mount, it brought about a decrease in offensive production.  Tight end Anthony McCoy is on track to play in this weekend’s game.  Wide receiver Damian Williams is doubtful.  The line has been shuffled, while Kristofer O’Dowd tries to regain his health, and the running backs have performed with nicks and dings.  Which offense will show up on Saturday?  We won’t know until we view the personnel on the field.  But a big plus for Pete Carroll and Jeremy Bates will be the return of fullback Stanley Havili, the pass catching threat out of the backfield.

Linebacker Malcolm Smith and defensive end Everson Griffen will return to the field after both sat out against Arizona State.  Mike Morgan will participate with a cast on his broken wrist. Freshman Devon Kennard will fill the role of strongside linebacker.

ANALYSIS

If there’s one team in America that may find comfort in the L.A Coliseum, it’s the Stanford Cardinal, who represent the Trojans last three losses in the stadium.  Certainly, the balanced offensive attack may pose a problem for the Trojans defense, but it isn’t anything they haven’t seen before.  The difference between winning and losing  may be determined by two X-factors shadowed by greater stars.

Chris Owusu powers Stanford’s special teams to be the nation’s best.  Contributing an average of 164 all-purpose yards per game, he can hurt you in several ways. But where he stands out is in the open space of kick returns, where he’s taken three back for scores.  Wide Receiver Brice Butler has played in the shadows of Damian Williams and will need to step it up in his absence. If USC can’t exploit a defense that has struggled in coverage, they will be in for a long afternoon.

Prediction: USC 21, Stanford 20

All-time series: USC leads 56-24-3
Streak: USC won 1
Last meeting: 2008- USC 45, Stanford 23 (Palo Alto)

Matt Barkley or Andrew Luck?

Matt Barkley has reaped all the publicity that comes with an elite program.  Andrew Luck has quietly performed for a school more popular for academics than football.  Two freshman quarterbacks in two different environments, but which is better?

Stanford’s Jim Harbaugh believes his guy is not only the best in the conference, but also best in the country.  NFL draft analysts have already projected Barkley as the No. 1 overall draft selection when he becomes eligible.  Is the gap of opinion between a coach and scouts really that far off? The fact is, in statistical comparison, these young guns are closer than most would realize.

Andrew Luck was a 2008 redshirt and had the benefit of a year in the program, unlike the true freshman Barkley who was playing high school football at this time a year ago.  In games played through November 7th, these quarterbacks are nearly neck and neck in numbers, with the exception of one.

Matt Barkley has attempted just five more passes than Luck, for a completion rating of 56.6 percent.  Andrew Luck’s 126 completions on 216 attempts give him a rating of 58.3 percent.  Luck has thrown for a little more than 2000 yards on the season, Barkley has amassed 1,839 yards through the air.  Together they have thrown for 21 touchdowns, with Luck tossing 11, and Barkley striking for 10.  Barkley’s production comes with one fewer game played, as he did not see action in the loss to Washington.

The largest statistical difference between the two is the amount of interceptions thrown.  Andrew Luck has been picked off just 3 times this year, for a passing rating of 153.09.  Matt Barkley has thrown 10 picks in his 7 games, shrinking his rating to 135.06.

Is one really better than the other? Maybe we will get that answer on Saturday. And if we don’t,  their youth will allow us more years to compare.

Williams injury creates scary situation

Damian Williams has been diagnosed with a high ankle sprain and is doubtful for Saturday’s game against Stanford.  Easily one of the most productive weapons in the Trojans’ offensive arsenal, his absence creates a very scary situation for a game with so much riding on it.

Unlike the last time the Cardinal came to visit, they won’t be the 42 point underdogs climbing out of a hole and searching for a significant victory.  This team is already bowl eligible, has already beaten a top-ten program, and is very much in the conference championship chase.  Stanford does so many things well that it leaves USC in a vulnerable position without their do-it-all player.

Damian Williams is more than the Trojans’ leading receiver.  He has also spent this season creating favorable field position for drives following punts.  If he isn’t bolstering Barkley’s totals with yards after the catch, he’s chewing up special teams yards to create shorter fields for his offense to operate.  Williams also requires a lot of defensive attention, freeing teammates to make plays of their own.

With Williams now doubtful, the return of Anthony McCoy becomes a must, though there is no word on his progress, after also suffering a high ankle sprain two weeks ago.  The big tight end is crucial in third down situations, an area where USC struggled again last week.  The good news in the midst of all the injuries is that fullback Stanley Havili will return and start this weekend.

First place Bengals powered by familiar cats

What “Hard knocks” jinx?  The Cincinnati Bengals spent their summer partnered with HBO to provide a guided tour of their facilities.  It was the public’s opportunity to peer through the window at the bumbling misguided misfits of 2008, while patiently awaiting the new season.  But with that window now closed and stadiums open, these Bengals are having the last laugh.  Now midway through the schedule, and fresh off a season sweep of the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati sits atop the AFC central, still without a blemish in divisional play.

Shambles to success is hardly a new story in any sport.  We’ve seen the turnarounds all too often.  But when you look at the Bengals, and the personnel that has come and gone, you will see some familiar cats powering their revival.

No stranger to the Empire, Carson Palmer has returned to playing with the same confidence that earned him the 2002 Heisman Trophy at USC, and looks very much like the quarterback that guided Cincinnati to their first winning season in 15 years to earn a playoff spot in 2005.  Though he’s yet to record a 300 yard passing performance, Palmer has completed sixty-one percent of his passes, striking when his team needs him most.

But if there is one particular area that can be credited to the Bengals improvement, it would be the defense.  And to be more specific, it’s their ability to stop the run.  Last season’s unit allowed opponents 120 rushing yards per game.  The current group ranks third in the NFL, stingily holding the opposition to 83.9 yards per contest.

Among the group designated to stall rushing attacks, you will find three players that once competed for Pete Carroll’s program.  Defensive end Frostee Rucker Joined the Bengals in 2006, after winning 2 National Championships in Southern California and playing for a third.  In the 2008 NFL draft, Cincinnati selected Keith Rivers out of USC.  In Rivers, they acquired another National champion and college football All-American.  And in the most recent draft, they reunited Rivers with his former teammate, Rey Maualuga.

Each has transitioned well to the NFL.  And meshing with other roster players, these collegiate champions have contributed to transforming a team in turmoil to one that now presents a respectable opponent.  Win forever, and always compete…Fight On!

Defense rebounds to power Trojans past Sun Devils

It wasn’t pretty, and at times scary, but the Trojans managed to escape the desert with a 14-9 victory.  Rebounding from the worst loss of Pete Carroll’s tenure a week ago, USC found themselves in a defensive shoving match and emerged as the last man standing.

Arizona State’s defense lived up to its billing, and fortunate for the USC, so did its offense.  The Sun Devils took the opening kickoff and quickly pushed to the USC 12-yard line on nine plays .  It had the look and feel of “here we go again”, after watching Oregon have its way with the Trojans defense last week.  But USC got a break, which proved to be huge in the end, when Cameron Marshall fumbled and Josh Pinkard recovered to kill the drive.

The defense would then clamp down, stifling the Devils and forcing Dennis Erickson to play his hand with a quarterback change.  Osweiler proved to be just as ineffective as the starting Danny Sullivan, as USC limited Arizona State to just a single touchdown, while forcing 4 turnovers.

The Trojan offense needed every bit of help that the defense could offer.  They sputtered for 4 quarters, with Matt Barkley completing just 7 of 22 passes.  Damian Williams provided the only offensive highlight, and only offensive score, turning a short pass into a 75-yard touchdown run.  Cornerback Will Harris accounted for the other Trojans touchdown, with a 55 yard interception return for score before the end of the first half.

USC managed to avoid Arizona State’s upset bid, but they did lose more bodies.  An ankle injury kept Damian Williams from finishing the game, and Joe McKnight also hobbled off in the fourth.  During the crucial  stretch run, USC played without the services of any starting receivers, the starting running back, starting tight end, and starting fullback.

The Devils dominated this game on paper, but still came up empty.  As well as both defenses played, USC assisted their opponent with 98 yards worth of penalties.  Arizona Sate countered  those generous mishaps with costly interceptions and a fumble to let the visitors off the hook.  The Trojans now have a week to get healthy and prepare to play a red hot Stanford team that defeated Oregon earlier in the day.