Mike Shanahan’s future will affect USC

Norm Chow begat Lane Kiffin, who begat Steve Sarkisian. It was a coaching tree of offensive coordinators that led to many years of USC football success.  With Sarkesian’s departure to Washington, Pete Carroll broke continuity, searching the other side of the forest for a replacement, and eventually finding and hiring Jeremy Bates.

Since his arrival in Southern California, after being one of many assistants ousted by the new Denver Broncos regime, Bates has endured more criticism than those preceding him.  The 2009 Trojans offense may be the least productive of Carroll’s teams, but it is also the only unit to start a true freshman quarterback.

Higher expectations are set for 2010, when Matt Barkley will have a year of experience and better understanding of the system.  But as we approach the period of coaching exchange, it is highly probable that Bates will not be here to lead him.

Mike Shanahan’s name has emerged several times as a coaching probable for NFL teams.  CFT reports Dallas, Washington, and Houston as three top choices on Shanny’s list, though neither of their current coaches has been terminated.  Buffalo is another possible destination, and already has a coaching vacancy.

If, and when, Shanahan makes his choice, it is likely that Jeremy Bates will reunite with his old boss, leaving the amateurs of USC for a professional return.  And as for Pete Carroll, the loss of another offensive coordinator would hardly be shocking or new.

“That certainly could happen” Carroll said of Bates returning to the NFL. “He’s highly regarded and he’s done enough work in the league that guys know.”

The Bates exit would make him the fourth offensive coordinator to leave USC in the past 5 years.

[CFT]

Preview: Arizona at USC

Unlike years past, when all things climaxed with rivalry, the Trojans will host the Wildcats to close the book on the regular season.  UCLA was moved ahead, fitting in nicely for ‘rivalry week’, with Arizona and USC scheduled for ‘championship week’.  The forethought was that this season finale would have Rose Bowl implications.  But while four BCS conferences will be crowning their champions on Saturday, the Pac 10 title and trip to the Rose Bowl will have been settled two days earlier in Oregon.

The Trojans and Wildcats won’t play for any trophies, but in all likelihood, a second place finish and possible trip to the Holiday Bowl.  And remarkably, this would be a first, as no program from Los Angeles has ever played in a San Diego bowl.

Arizona Wildcats (7-4, 5-3 Pac 10)
Last Week: defeated Arizona State

The Wildcats are the conference creeper.  With Stanford, USC, and Oregon making the majority of the noise, Arizona is quietly 7-4 and well in the title hunt two weeks ago.  A heartbreaking overtime loss to Oregon ended any future plans to be in Pasadena on New Year’s Day, but a win on Saturday will add to season accomplishments.

Mike Stoops is a defensive mind, and not surprisingly, his Wildcats are second in conference in that category, trailing only Arizona State. Ricky Elmore will enter this game with 10.5 sacks (1^st in conference) and 11.5 tackles for loss. The defensive end will face a USC offensive line that is again reshuffled, with Kris O’Dowd returning to the middle.  Cornerback Trevin Wade will draw the assignment of defending Damian Williams and limiting big plays by the Trojans pass attack.  Though the cats are decent against the rush, they’ve allowed opposing quarterbacks to be fairly efficient, something they can ill afford against a USC offense looking to breakout.

USC Trojans (8-3, 5-3 Pac 10)
Last Week: defeated UCLA

With the Pac 10 bunched in formation, losing this game would drop the Trojans to a sixth place finish in conference.  USC continues to struggle in third down efficiency, and Matt Barkley has now thrown at least one interception in each of the last seven games.  The ineffectiveness of the true freshman has allowed opposing defenses to concentrate on run stoppage.  The talented backfield that was expected to run over opponents is 4^th best in the Pac 10, having to earn every yard in carrying the offensive load.  Look for the Trojans to continue to exploit defenses by utilizing tight end Anthony McCoy for big gains.

The defense appeared much improved last week, though it did face a miserable UCLA offense.  They get a different look against a Sonny Dykes unit that is often high powered and quick to strike. The good news for USC is that Arizona running back Nick Grisby will not play in this game.  The bad news is Keola Antolin filling the spot.  Antolin had some success running against the Trojans a year ago, until he was sidelined by a crippling hit from Taylor Mays.  Both Stanford and Oregon overpowered USC with their rushing attack, and I’m sure Pete Carroll has made a note of it. Also expect to see plenty of blitz packages against quarterback Nick Foles, who has a break in his non throwing hand.

X-Factor- These teams are more evenly matched than one would believe. And in any contest that has the making of a draw, the play on special teams can be the difference between winning and losing.  With Arizona and USC, you have the conference’s two best return men in William Wright and Damian Williams.  Wright’s 19.18 yards per return make him the best in the nation.  Unless the Trojans have suddenly solved their problems on third down, they’ll spend another day punting the ball away, and delivering it to the strength of their opponent.

Prediction: USC 27, Arizona 26
All Time Series: USC leads 26-6
Streak: USC has won 7
Last Meeting: USC 17, Arizona 10 (Tucson, AZ)

Damian Williams contemplates 2010 return

Damian Williams nearly left the program a year ago.  He was draft eligible, losing his quarterback, and recognized as a talent on the national scene. He followed his heart and remained at USC.  With the decision then, I felt the empire was assured of his departure at the close of the current campaign.  But twelve months later, placed in the same predicament, the receiver remains indecisive.

“Right now it’s 50-50, a toss-up,” he said. “After I get the evaluation and more feedback I’ll know more.”–Los Angeles Times

Williams will be graduating this month as an academic senior, while still holding an option for another athletic year.  Personally, I feel that a first round projection will push him into the draft, making the end of season bowl game his last as a Trojan.  With an NFL rookie pay scale possibly on the horizon for 2011, I expect Williams to be one of several collegiate underclassmen called to mass exodus from the college ranks.

[Los Angeles Times]

Sugar coated Bruins with the same bitter taste

There’s bad blood brewin’—or ‘Bruin’—and as expected in a town featuring Hollywood as its backdrop, amateur screen writers will rush to prepare a script complete with villains, struggles, and an underdog shifting the balance of power to close the gap. But just as the silver screen is often filled with exaggeration, the battle for Los Angeles is no different. Sure, Pete Carroll and Rick Neuheisel will portray themselves, and may even display genuine hate without the assistance of cue cards. But any mention of the ‘gutty’ little Bruins narrowing the distance between themselves and their nemesis is nothing more than the sugar coating of a rivalry.

After watching ESPN’s take of Saturday’s game, it was apparent that analysts had ridiculously categorized the crosstown showdown as a suspense thriller, instead of rightfully leaving it as the situation comedy that it has been. UCLA may be close to USC on a city map, but the football program remains far in the distance and gaining no ground.

Despite the hiring of high profile coaches, UCLA is no different today than they were three years ago. There is plenty of focus on the final seven points scored by the Trojans in the closing seconds of the game, but if we’re measuring progression, the attention should be placed on UCLA’s seven points scored in the sixty minute contest. Those seven points not only match the woeful offensive output of Neuheisel’s Bruins of 2008, but they are equal to the amount scored against USC in Karl Dorrell’s final season. Three consecutive victories for USC, while posting nearly identical scores in each. This is Westwood progression?

When you look at conference play, again you will find a program stuck in the mud. UCLA’s three conference victories equal last year’s total, and is just one less than Dorrell’s staff in 2007. And though Saturday’s final score of 28-7 may not be indicative of the battle fought, it’s hardly a sign of UCLA closing the gap, as much as it gives evidence to the empire’s regression. In the midst of an 8-3 season of struggles, it’s clear that the Trojans are not what they once were. Others in conference have taken advantage of the fact, while the incapable Bruins are left with that same bitter taste in their mouth.

The rivalry was filled with bad blood, long before Matt Barkley made a final heave that rested in the arms of Damian Williams. That’s the extent of ESPN’s script writing accuracy. As far as a gap being closed between two programs, that is purely fiction, and included for the sole purpose of entertainment.

UCLA at USC: The battle for Los Angeles

After a string of eight consecutive losses, USC has rebounded to win nine of ten against their crosstown rivals. The numbers reflect a power shift, with a sleeping giant rising from the mat to retake the city of Los Angeles, and the temporary owners staggered into a state of dormancy.

Pete Carroll is 7-1 in the series, often plowing his way through UCLA to claim conference championships, BCS bowl births, and national titles. But even with success far outweighing failure, the lone blemish of 2006 is etched in memory, as it denied his Trojans a championship game appearance.

On the eve of 79th meeting between the two schools, there are questions surrounding both programs. Southern California appears more vulnerable than in years past, and UCLA would like nothing more than to kick a big dog while it’s down. The Bruins have displayed a late season surge, and Saturday will be a greater indicator of whether the gap between themselves and their neighbor has been closed or if the sudden “Westwood wonders” are merely blowing smoke.

The Bruins enter this game riding a three game win streak, which is an obvious confidence builder come Saturday. But taking a realistic approach, UCLA hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent all season. The three game streak, which also marks the only victories in conference play, came against Washington, Washington State, and Arizona State. All three are Pac 10 bottom dwellers. Each will finish the year with losing records.

The Trojans had two weeks to prepare, having the luxury of a bye last weekend, after suffering one of the most humiliating losses in school history. The time off didn’t provide just a much needed rest or extra practice and film study, it has allowed healthy bodies to return to the field. Damian Williams will return for the crosstown showdown, after sitting out the Stanford loss with a high ankle sprain. Anthony McCoy, also suffering the lingering effects of the same injury, should have more of an offensive presence on Saturday.

X-Factors: With UCLA and USC, you have two of the worst teams in the country on third down. USC is ranked 100th on third down conversions, and UCLA 99th. The team able to overcome the struggles on Saturday will be the one controlling the clock and field position. UCLA’s Brian Price can play a significant role in limiting short yardage situations, if the talented defensive tackle is able to negate both the Trojans rushing attack and Barkley’s ability to step up in the pocket on passing downs.

Prediction: USC 28, UCLA 7

All Time Series: USC leads 43-28-7
Streak: USC has won 2
Last Meeting: USC 28, UCLA 7 (Pasadena, CA)